US oil production at current prices has probably reached its peak, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said at the Energy Panel of the XXVIII St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Delivering a keynote speech, the CEO called the energy policy initially announced by the new US administration promising. However, most of these goals have not yet been achieved: tariff wars have led to a drop in oil prices, while taxes for the oil industry remain at the same level and interest rates have not been reduced. Given this backdrop, the number of active drilling rigs has fallen 9% to 439 over the past two months and oil production growth has stalled. In less than a year, the U.S. Department of Energy has lowered its forecast for U.S. oil production by the end of 2025 by 400 thousand barrels per day.

“At current prices, the USA oil production appears to have peaked,” Sechin said, noting that Diamondback Energy and ConocoPhillips recently voiced this opinion. And Liberty Energy, an oilfield services company founded by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, expects a significant slowdown in drilling activity in the second half of this year, which should lead to a reduction in the U.S. drilling fleet by about 10% more. “Not surprisingly, against this backdrop, many shale players have already started cutting investments,” said Rosneft's CEO.

He noted that the sharp drop in oil prices this year has already led to a revision of investment plans. According to the IEA's latest estimate, this year, for the first time in five years, global investments in oil exploration and production will drop by 6%, while in the U.S. the drop will amount to about 10%.  “I think this is just the beginning,” the CEO of Rosneft remarked.

“The new head of the US Treasury Department, Scott Bessent, has repeatedly stated that the success of Trump's second presidential term requires oil production growth in the US in the amount of three million barrels per day. This is part of a so-called “3-3-3 Plan” which also envisages cutting the US budget deficit down to 3% of GDP and reaching 3% of GDP increase,” Igor Sechin reminded.

The CEO of the Company also asks the question, what difference does it make for the US market where these barrels will come from? “Quite possibly, those may be barrels produced in OPEC+ countries. Since late last year the alliance has consistently reiterated the need to ramp up production due to changes in consumption,” Sechin said.

The CEO also noted that in addition to the interest of states, the interests of shareholders should be taken into account. Low oil prices in the current period do not allow many companies to maintain the same level of dividend payments and share buybacks, said the CEO of Rosneft. According to Rystad Energy experts, which Sechin cited, if the oil majors maintain their payments to shareholders, they will have to almost completely abandon investments or significantly increase their debt as early as this year.

“The fall in prices has already started to affect the major players. BP and Chevron will reduce share buybacks by almost 60% and 30%, respectively , while Aramco has to build up debt to be able to pay dividends,” the CEO said.

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Rosneft Oil Company
June 21, 2025